过去太阳能强度的主要代理,我们有来自证明相关太阳黑子的数量,已记录以来的发明望远镜在1600年代初。和情节看起来太普通,差不多是这样的:[![太阳能输出][1]][1]* *我们没有任何的证据之间的显著相关性太阳周期和地震或火山活动。* *你不会找到合法的同行评议的学术期刊上的论文关于缺乏相关性,因为一般零结果不是最感兴趣的。这是同样的原因,为什么你没有找到论文关于龙和独角兽。而是我自己挖出数据。今年我绘制统计从1950年到2017年全球的所有地震7级或更高版本发现的(美国地质勘探局Earthqueake目录)[2](红色),随着太阳黑子的总数每年从(太阳黑子指数和长期的太阳观测)[3](蓝色)。这是合成图:[![在这里输入图像描述][4]][4]似乎没有任何明显的两个图形之间的联系。太阳能部分显示了良好的11年太阳活动周期(实际上(这是22年周期)[5]有两个类似的部分)。 The earthquakes show much less pattern. There are many fault systems on earth, and if you cherry-pick one (like the New Madrid fault), you might found a correlation just by chance, but that have no statistical value, even less if no physical mechanism is proposed for such influence. But as you can see in the graph above, if we include all earthquakes, that correlation vanishes. The solar cycle does indeed have some influence on climate - by changing the intensity of UV radiation, which in turn changes the properties of the upper atmosphere. However, the variation in total energy due to the solar cycles are actually very small (~0.1%). The impacts of those small fluctuations are not large enough to explain the recent warming observed in the last century, and it does not the drive ice ages either (which are triggered by larger factors like changes in the earth orbit, which operate at a MUCH longer timescale [~100,000 years]). The plot below shows both the data we have from volcanic activity impact (in black - the top section), the changes in solar emission (red and blue - the middle section), and the remaining amount of input unexplained by sun and volcanic forces [thick black line, bottom], which is generally attributed to anthropogenic activities (greenhouse gases, aerosols, etc). Hopefully you can see that changes in volcanic eruptions [top] and the sun [middle] can pretty much explain the changes in temperature before the industrial revolution, but not after. So anthropogenic influences need to be included to explain the observed warming: [![atmospheric forcing past][6]][6] Then the next plot shows resulting temperature variations over the last millennium. - The grey shading indicates the range of possible values recovered from different paleoclimatic archives (tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc..). You can see that despite the various warmer or cooler past values estimates, there is still a clear strong warming trend during the last century. - The smaller, thinner red and blue colored lines show how much the temperature should have changed based upon the known changes in volcanic eruptions and solar radiation. - The thicker colored lines shows different reconstructions of temperature based upon those natural inputs, plus plus anthropogenic activities (which are negligible prior to 1800) [![enter image description here][7]][7] Now, going back to earthquakes, when enough people make enough predictions that a catastrophic event will happen, some will be right. [Here is a small sampling][8] of past apocalyptic forecasts. You can see that most did not come true. Because earthquakes happen periodically, some people do claim their claims are right, but the reality is that life generally continues as it has for centuries; these expected "catastrophes" have never come to upend civilization. So they are generally wrong. The exact cycle of earthquakes can vary by hundreds of years, and there is still NO way to predict WHEN they will exactly happen with current technology. **Once again, there is no observed link between solar activity and earthquakes or volcanic activity.** [1]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/nwvd6.png [2]: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/ [3]: http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles#total [4]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/UQwNJ.png [5]: https://scied.ucar.edu/sunspot-cycle [6]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/EQvUA.png [7]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/90hH1.png [8]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events