飓风追踪受到环境的影响。这些可以包括亚热带山脊、中期纬度上层槽,其他热带气旋(藤原效应)和其他瞬态高点和低点。特别是在北太平洋西部有两种天气尺度现象会影响飓风轨迹——[热带对流层上部槽][1]和西太平洋热带高子岭- [Subseasonal带状夏季西太平洋副热带高压的变化:气候影响和潜在机制)[2]。而上层tropsopheric槽影响热带气旋轨迹如本文所示(概念模型资料的影响细胞在西北太平洋热带气旋运动][3]我们要专注于西太平洋热带高子的影响,直接关系到OP的问题。最近一篇题为[台风的气候分析,指导流程,和太平洋副热带高压北太平洋附近的台湾和西方][4]细节亚热带的影响西太平洋山脊的深层意思是操舵的热带气旋流在台湾登陆内地。西太平洋热带高子岭,从850 hPa - 500 hPa展品结构。[![在这里输入图像描述][5]][5]-图像从本文(台风的气候分析,指导流程,和太平洋副热带高压北太平洋附近的台湾和西方][4]。图像是500年7月8月9月hPa位势高度气候值在西太平洋。上面的显示图像的相关总结TCs台湾附近的流动。 Assuming the subtropical ridge western extent is located between Taiwan and Kyushu(shown in blue dotted line) the mean steering flow is such that it steers tropical cyclones towawrds the Taiwan coast. On the other hand if it shrinks further towards the east (shown in red dotted line) all cyclones generated at low latitudes will still be guided towards Taiwan but the steering flow at the edge of the ridge would allow the cyclone to recurve and go towards the islands of Japan. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_upper_tropospheric_trough [2]: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-019-04705-4#:~:text=In%20both%20early%20and%20late,is%20stronger%20in%20late%20summer. [3]: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/24/5/2009waf2222181_1.xml [4]: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/5/543 [5]: https://i.stack.imgur.com/K5tPD.jpg