你不能。有两种不同的方法。短期气象和长期的气候。在短期内,大气的行为可以被描述为理查森的微分方程,但问题是解决这个问题的办法是数学上不稳定。轻微的不准确和不完整的初始和边界条件——即输入测量数据会导致预测未来状态的散度。所以,将来超过10 - 14天,任何基于当前状态的数值预测迷失在噪音。长期气候的方法与概率和长期观察到时空行为模式。但它主要集中在预期范围的表面平均温度和降水。参数也喜欢风的强度方向和温度高可变性。除非是典型的季节性的风像帕萨特或monzunes。 Both meteorological and climatological predictions largely depend on particular land and sea layouts, sea temperature and stream patterns. ---- Meteorology and climatology search for the answer for the hundred years and you want to get it in the single StackExchange post. Or rather, they already know the answer - there is no definite nor exact answer - and just try to find good approximations. For particular, regularly observed patterns, you can make quite reliable predictions. If there is observed for some season the wind blows toward this side of mountain range, you can make such a prediction. But you cannot make general predictions for variable patterns, unless short term ones.